Global economic climate at its worst moment

· Economics

According with the results of the Economic Institute of Research of Munich. Latin America was affected. Uruguay, Peru and Brazil the best, Argentina and Ecuador the worst. Colombia remained stable.

According with the Economic Institute of Research of Munich about the index of world economic climate registered in the first part of the year, there was a global decline as a result of the actual conditions and expectations for the next semester. The regions of the world most affected were West Europe and Asia, while North America remained rather stable. The U.S. economy in the actuality was not so much pesimistic as in the first part of the year.

Although West Europe had a worrying decline, countries like Finland, Austria, Germany and The Netherlands hold a favorable index in contrast with the low results of Italy, Spain and United Kingdom. In the Asian part, the fall affected especially India, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and the Philippines, but it was not worst for Japan that remained in its low index.

The German Institute forecast that inflation for this year will be of 3.8% for United States, higher than the one of 2007 that was 2.8%, while inflation for West Europe will be 3.5% (in 2007 it was 2.1%). About Asia, inflation is expected in 5.3% in comparisson with 2.5% of 2007.

The Dollar and Yen still with a strong devaluation, while the Euro will be further strengthened. However, about Dollar it is not expected a further fall in the following months.

In a global way, the index of economic climate fall from 4.6 to 4.1 between April and July of 2008.

Latin America

The German Institute in union with the Brazilian Institute of Economy of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (GVF), conducted the research on the economic climate in Latin America between October 2007 and the first part of the year. Among April and July 2008, the Economic Climate Index (ECI) in Latin America went from 4.9 to 4.6, while the Actual Situation Index (ASI) registered as satisfactory going from 5.8 to 5.7 scores in that same period, it means, a fall of only 0.5 scores.

The worsening of the ECI in Latin America is basically the result of the Global Economic Climate, but, according to GVF the mix of an satisfactory ASI (higher than 5.0 scores) with a negative ECI (lower than 5.0 scores) indicates that Latin America is located on a descendant phase of the economical cycle. The economic scientist forecast that the actual situation of the region will become worst in the next semester because there are not signs of a global recovery. It is also forecast a global rise in inflation and government debts.

According with the report of AméricaEconomía, based on the researchs of GVF and the Center for Economic Researchs of Munich, the countries with the best scores in Latin America were Uruguay and Peru, while Brazil came into a phase of contraction of the economic cycle. It is also underlined Paraguay with high expectations in the capital expenditure, investment and consume, more the recent change in the goverment.

The countries with the worst fall were Ecuador with its traditional low growing and Argentina due to the uncertainty related to the interest rate, a problem of energy and political instability. Mexico was also among the lowest.

The countries at the top with best classification in the research were Uruguay, Peru and Brazil, while Colombia showed a certain stability keeping its 5th place. Paraguay and Bolivia improved their position.

The following is the classification published by AméricaEconomía:

1. Uruguay (8,0)
2. Peru (7,4)
3. Brazil (6,2)
4. Paraguay (5, 8)
5. Colombia (5,6)
6. Costa Rica (5,5)
7. Chile (5,3)
8. Bolivia (4,7)
9. Venezuela (4,5)
10. Mexico (4,4)
11. Argentina (3,9)
12. Ecuador (3,5)

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